Sunday, November 02, 2008

My Predictions for Election 2008

OK, as if anyone cares, I've made my predictions for the outcome of this election. It should come as no surprise that I predict that Obama will win. Assuming I'm correct this will significantly improve my "vote for a winner" percentage since my first presidential election in 1980. I have voted for exactly two winners out of seven. Ouch. I'm really hoping I make some progress towards batting .500!

But that's not much of a prediction, now is it? So, I've gone ahead and made my two - yes, I'm a weasel - election night scenarios over at Yahoo's political dashboard. Man, I do love that flash application. Another tool to feed my addiction this election cycle. If my man does lose I can only imagine how much tinkering I'll do with that map trying to figure out how we could have salvaged this.

Anyway, here are the links to my worst case and best case scenarios.

So, there's only a "slight" three state difference between the two. OK, those three states just happen to be Ohio, Florida and Virginia but what's 60 electoral votes amongst friends?

In my worst case scenario, Obama wins a total of 278 votes by holding on to the Kerry states and cutting a swath through the west with Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. I think he's got those wrapped up pretty well. I also think he's likely to take either Florida or Ohio with him and might very well take both. 278 will do the job and I won't complain if that's how it goes. I do, however, hope that there is a larger, more solidly mandate oriented, majority to take home. I think it will help the country unite behind our new president and that's something we need badly.

In the best case scenario I see Obama picking up Ohio, Florida and Virginia, as I said, for a total of 338, a comfortable margin that meets the "mandate" criteria above, even if it's not a blowout.

I've read other projections that range up to 370 plus for Obama but I'm not all that comfortable with those. I doubt the election can fall to McCain, barring a catastrophe - or "miracle" as those on the right would call it - but I do believe that a large majority of the "undecideds will fall towards McCain. If they haven't been able to get "comfortable" with Obama by now I can't imagine what will push them his way at this stage. A majority is a majority though, it's not ALL the undecideds, which is what would have to happen for McCain to pull it off.

So, I expect a "tightening." That's normal. Unless the leading candidate moves out into landslide election it's natural for the polls and the race itself to narrow somewhat. Narrowing isn't a worry to me, especially in national polling.

So, that's it for Gersh. Nothing earth shattering. . . well, other than the election of our first minority president. While I'm not voting for Obama on that basis, it's something of which I am very very pleased. More on that later.

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